2026 Aftermarket Outlook: Flat Sales but Rising Demand - Inside the AAPEX Survey

 

The 2026 AAPEX “State of the Automotive Aftermarket” survey has revealed a paradox shaping the industry: sales expectations are flat, yet demand for aftermarket parts and services continues to rise. This contrast highlights an industry grappling with uncertainty, price sensitivity, and shifting consumer behaviour - but also one positioned for stable long‑term growth.

The survey collected responses from 448 aftermarket professionals, representing repair shops, distributors, suppliers, and manufacturers.

 

1. Sales Outlook: Cautiously Flat, Not Declining

The survey shows:

• 31% expect to beat sales goals
• 42% expect to meet sales targets
• 27% expect to fall short

These figures indicate stability rather than expansion, reflecting pricing pressures, supply chain uncertainty, and evolving buying behaviours. 

 

2. Demand Is Rising Due to Older Vehicles and High New‑Car Prices

Despite flat sales expectations, 61% of respondents expect demand to grow in 2026. The reasons include:

• Rising new‑car prices
• Consumers are delaying new purchases
• Longer vehicle ownership cycles

As one respondent explained, “The price of new cars is high, so people are maintaining older vehicles.”
This continues the long‑term trend of cars staying on the road longer and needing more maintenance.

 

 

3. Price Sensitivity Is Increasing, But Quality Still Comes First

Consumer behaviour shows a complex picture:

• 53% of businesses report increased interest in lower‑cost parts
• 34% say quality remains the top purchasing driver
• 25% cite price as the next key driver
• 20% say availability influences buying decisions

This suggests that customers want value, but are not willing to sacrifice reliability.

 

4. Uncertainty Is the Industry’s Biggest Threat

A striking 45% of respondents identified uncertainty as the biggest challenge facing the aftermarket in 2026. This includes:

• Supply chain unpredictability
• Inventory balancing
• Shifting EV strategy
• Labour constraints

This uncertainty shapes everything from ordering to stocking to investment planning.

 

 

5. Supply Chain Diversification Is Well Underway

• 70% of businesses have diversified suppliers or plan to do so
• Inventory levels are rising, with 38% reporting higher stock
• Only 20% report lower inventory levels than in 2025

Businesses are moving away from single‑source dependencies, a strategy reinforced by recent logistics delays, shipping cost spikes, and geopolitical instability.

 

6. EV Investment Is Slowing as Businesses Reassess

The survey shows mixed sentiment around EV investment:

• 26% plan to invest less in EVs this year
• 17% plan to invest more
• 27% expect to invest the same
• 29% are unsure of their EV strategy

This uncertainty stems from uneven consumer adoption and unclear short‑term profitability.

 

7. AI Adoption Is Growing Cautiously

AI adoption is increasing:

• 21% have implemented enterprise‑grade AI tools
• 20% are planning implementations

Top uses include:

• Customer service (60%)
• Inventory management (42%)
• Product development (36%)

AI is no longer experimental - but businesses are rolling it out carefully.

 

8. The Industry Outlook for 2026

The aftermarket faces:

• Flat but stable sales expectations
• Strong underlying demand
• Heightened price sensitivity
• Supply‑chain diversification
• Rapid digitalisation
• Uncertainty around EV strategy

This points to a year of measured, strategic decision‑making, not aggressive expansion.

References from | https://businessinfomag.uk/ | The Business Technology, IT & Workplace